So far, however, it appears that the market has held up better than other parts of the economy. A recent report by Knight Frank notes that the average vacancy rate in Mexico City is around 5.8% in certain parts of the city. Generally speaking, the market for commercial real estate is healthy, mirroring the low vacancy rates of the real estate market overall.
Vacancy rates will rise gradually over the short to medium term, however, suggesting more competitive conditions in coming times. The market for industrial real estate (warehousing, logistics, etc.) is, by contrast, taking a battering. In other regional countries the market for industrial real estate is holding up considerably better by contrast. An assessment of the health of the residential real estate market is not so easily made.
However, we expect that the performance of this market segment is comparable with the non-industrial commercial sector. According to some of the data available to us, it appears that office space in Mexico City (in early 2009) cost around US$30.00, or EUR21.30, per square meter per year to rent. This represents a fall in rental prices of 6.3% year-on-year (y-o-y). As yet, we have been unable to find suitable data on the housing market in Mexico.
Housing prices generally firmed in major markets in Latin America. Over the coming months, the key issues to watch will likely be, first, the continued carnage in Mexico's industrial real estate sector. Second, the coming online of a significant amount of new space, which will have the effect of driving up vacancy rates. Third, whether the broader economic conditions cause developers to delay projects, as is currently expected.